Four Reasons Why Interstate Conflict Scholars Don’t Read Intrastate Work and Why They are Wrong, Part 2

Excellent article. It opens a door for discussion that is crucial for understanding political violence in general – seems like we forget that there are ties that bind different areas of political science, and in doing so, the loss is ours.

Will Unarmed Civilians Soon Get Massacred in Ukraine?

Fascinating poll, and a worthy read. Thanks for sharing the results of your research. I’m curious to see how this plays out in the long run, and if early warning systems can actually work…

Dart-Throwing Chimp

According to one pool of forecasters, most probably not.

As part of a public atrocities early-warning system I am currently helping to build for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Center for the Prevention of Genocide (see here), we are running a kind of always-on forecasting survey called an opinion pool. An opinion pool is similar in spirit to a prediction market, but instead of having participants trade shares tied the occurrence of some future event, we simply ask participants to estimate the probability of each event’s occurrence. In contrast to a traditional survey, every question remains open until the event occurs or the forecasting window closes. This way, participants can update their forecasts as often as they like, as they see or hear relevant information or just change their minds.

With generous support from Inkling, we started up our opinion pool in October, aiming to test and refine…

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