Voices from Maidan, Ukraine

Looking for on the ground accounts from Ukraine? The organization behind these videos is run by a friend of a friend. An expression of the diaspora’s involvement, they are also being used to counteract Russian propaganda attempts in the region.




Friends of mine, in Kiev 2013. Photo courtesy of P. Filenko.

Friends of mine, in Kiev 2013. Photo courtesy of P. Filenko.

I’ve got contacts in Ukraine, and have contacted a guest blogger from Venezuela, as well. Keep an eye open for posts from people on site in the next few weeks. A view from the heart of conflict is a rarity in the academic world. Time to embrace it!

And in Current Events….

For those of you who missed the news this morning:




For those of you who read Russian: http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/77630







Will Unarmed Civilians Soon Get Massacred in Ukraine?

Fascinating poll, and a worthy read. Thanks for sharing the results of your research. I’m curious to see how this plays out in the long run, and if early warning systems can actually work…

Dart-Throwing Chimp

According to one pool of forecasters, most probably not.

As part of a public atrocities early-warning system I am currently helping to build for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Center for the Prevention of Genocide (see here), we are running a kind of always-on forecasting survey called an opinion pool. An opinion pool is similar in spirit to a prediction market, but instead of having participants trade shares tied the occurrence of some future event, we simply ask participants to estimate the probability of each event’s occurrence. In contrast to a traditional survey, every question remains open until the event occurs or the forecasting window closes. This way, participants can update their forecasts as often as they like, as they see or hear relevant information or just change their minds.

With generous support from Inkling, we started up our opinion pool in October, aiming to test and refine…

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